Evidence must match the next decision
Weak directional evidence may justify five more interviews. A three-month build, hire or advertising budget requires stronger action, transaction or adoption evidence. The goal is not certainty; it is keeping investment risk proportional to evidence strength.
The WOW51 E0–E3 evidence ladder
- E0 — Untested hypothesis: AI inference, internal belief or an assumed customer profile.
- E1 — Attention and statement: visits, saves, surveys or interview claims.
- E2 — Action: a booking, submitted information, completed trial or decision-maker introduction.
- E3 — Transaction and adoption: deposit, payment, valid order, real use or repeat purchase.
Four common evidence errors
- People liked the post, therefore demand exists.
- Interviewees said they would buy, therefore the price works.
- One person paid, therefore the market is repeatable.
- AI said the idea is viable, therefore investment should increase.
A practical evidence record
- Original hypothesis: who buys in which situation?
- Observed fact: record behavior without optimistic interpretation.
- Evidence level: assign E0, E1, E2 or E3.
- Counterevidence: record refusals, churn, refunds and alternatives.
- Next test: run one experiment that can raise or overturn the level.
Continue, change or stop
- Continue when the same buying situation repeats and produces payment or adoption.
- Change when people act but consistently stop at scope, price, trust or payment.
- Stop when qualified outreach produces no action across repeated tests, or viable pricing stays below delivery cost.